diff --git a/changelog.txt b/changelog.txt
index 1ed30ae501..c2284bbe88 100644
--- a/changelog.txt
+++ b/changelog.txt
@@ -32,6 +32,8 @@ Template for new versions:
 
 ## New Features
 
+- `gui/notify`: new `mandates_expiring_early` notification warns when a production mandate is within 3 months of expiring (disabled by default)
+
 ## Fixes
 - `bodyswap`: fix "invalid argument count" when the target unit has no nemesis record
 - `fix/loyaltycascade`: guard against citizens that are not historical figures and emit a warning.
diff --git a/internal/notify/notifications.lua b/internal/notify/notifications.lua
index 108fe92f97..3cc8aecdd4 100644
--- a/internal/notify/notifications.lua
+++ b/internal/notify/notifications.lua
@@ -421,6 +421,19 @@ function Cache_nemesis_all:get_affected_unit_ids()
     return self.ATTRS.affected_unit_ids
 end
 
+-- mandate.timeout_counter increments once per 10 frames
+local function count_expiring_mandates(remaining)
+    local count = 0
+    for _, mandate in ipairs(df.global.world.mandates.all) do
+        if mandate.mode == df.mandate_type.Make and
+            mandate.timeout_limit - mandate.timeout_counter < remaining
+        then
+            count = count + 1
+        end
+    end
+    return count
+end
+
 -- the order of this list controls the order the notifications will appear in the overlay
 NOTIFICATIONS_BY_IDX = {
     {
@@ -585,14 +598,7 @@ NOTIFICATIONS_BY_IDX = {
         desc='Notifies when a production mandate is within 1 month of expiring.',
         default=true,
         dwarf_fn=function()
-            local count = 0
-            for _, mandate in ipairs(df.global.world.mandates.all) do
-                if mandate.mode == df.mandate_type.Make and
-                    mandate.timeout_limit - mandate.timeout_counter < 2500
-                then
-                    count = count + 1
-                end
-            end
+            local count = count_expiring_mandates(2500)
             if count > 0 then
                 return ('%d production mandate%s near deadline'):format(
                     count,
@@ -604,6 +610,23 @@ NOTIFICATIONS_BY_IDX = {
             gui.simulateInput(dfhack.gui.getDFViewscreen(), 'D_NOBLES')
         end,
     },
+    {
+        name='mandates_expiring_early',
+        desc='Notifies when a production mandate is within 3 months of expiring.',
+        default=false,
+        dwarf_fn=function()
+            local count = count_expiring_mandates(10080)
+            if count > 0 then
+                return ('%d production mandate%s expire within 3 months'):format(
+                    count,
+                    count == 1 and '' or 's'
+                )
+            end
+        end,
+        on_click=function()
+            gui.simulateInput(dfhack.gui.getDFViewscreen(), 'D_NOBLES')
+        end,
+    },
     {
         name='petitions_agreed',
         desc='Notifies when you have agreed to build (but have not yet built) a guildhall or temple.',
diff --git a/test/notify.lua b/test/notify.lua
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000..35e290a636
--- /dev/null
+++ b/test/notify.lua
@@ -0,0 +1,77 @@
+config = {
+    target = 'gui/notify',
+    mode = 'fortress',
+}
+
+local notifications = reqscript('internal/notify/notifications')
+
+local all_mandates = df.global.world.mandates.all
+
+-- mandate.timeout_counter increments once per 10 frames
+local NEAR_THRESHOLD = 2500 -- ~3 weeks
+local EARLY_THRESHOLD = 10080 -- 3 months
+
+local function add_mandate(remaining)
+    local m = df.mandate:new()
+    m.mode = df.mandate_type.Make
+    m.timeout_counter = 0
+    m.timeout_limit = remaining
+    all_mandates:insert('#', m)
+end
+
+local function remove_added_mandates(orig_size)
+    for i = #all_mandates - 1, orig_size, -1 do
+        all_mandates:erase(i)
+    end
+end
+
+local function window_count(remaining)
+    local count = 0
+    for _, m in ipairs(all_mandates) do
+        if m.mode == df.mandate_type.Make and
+            m.timeout_limit - m.timeout_counter < remaining
+        then
+            count = count + 1
+        end
+    end
+    return count
+end
+
+local function expected_msg(count, suffix)
+    if count == 0 then return nil end
+    return ('%d production mandate%s %s'):format(
+        count, count == 1 and '' or 's', suffix)
+end
+
+local function expect_mandate_msgs(near_count, early_count)
+    local near = notifications.NOTIFICATIONS_BY_NAME.mandates_expiring
+    local early = notifications.NOTIFICATIONS_BY_NAME.mandates_expiring_early
+    expect.eq(expected_msg(near_count, 'near deadline'), near.dwarf_fn())
+    expect.eq(expected_msg(early_count, 'expire within 3 months'),
+              early.dwarf_fn())
+end
+
+function test.mandates_expiring()
+    local orig_size = #all_mandates
+    return dfhack.with_finalize(
+        function() remove_added_mandates(orig_size) end,
+        function()
+            -- the fort may already have real mandates; measure baselines
+            local base_near = window_count(NEAR_THRESHOLD)
+            local base_early = window_count(EARLY_THRESHOLD)
+
+            expect_mandate_msgs(base_near, base_early)
+
+            -- ~1.5 months remaining: early notification only
+            add_mandate(5000)
+            expect_mandate_msgs(base_near, base_early + 1)
+
+            -- ~8 days remaining: both notifications
+            add_mandate(1000)
+            expect_mandate_msgs(base_near + 1, base_early + 2)
+
+            -- ~4.5 months remaining: neither notification
+            add_mandate(15000)
+            expect_mandate_msgs(base_near + 1, base_early + 2)
+        end)
+end