General Research

Peer-reviewed (and tiered-authoritative) sources for the economicspace asteroid-mining profitability pipeline, its Stage 3 reference package spacecost, and the Stage 1 package AsteroidCatalog. Every source here is one that can actually be accessed and analyzed: full text where legally redistributable, otherwise metadata, abstract and extracted key tables. Since Round 74 the registry also lists every source those three repos cite, including the grey ones (tier T4), so each upstream dependency is visible even before it has been read. The exceptions are sources the owner has rejected, which are listed only under INDEX.md "Rejected sources".

Why this repo exists

economicspace/CITATIONS.md records what the pipeline already cites (SBDB, ssoBFT, NEOWISE V2.0, USGS/LME/yfinance prices, Izzo 2015 for Lambert). The weakest-sourced cells of the model are exactly where peer-reviewed backing is missing:

Domains 1–5 were ranked by how weakly sourced their cells were; 6–11 were added later, in the order the research rounds found the next gap; 12–14 were added in Round 74 for upstream citations no earlier domain covered; 15–22 were added in Round 75 for upstream cells no domain covered, most of which upstream itself labels as judgement rather than measurement; 23–25 were added in Round 76 by a second pass over the same code. Each of their FINDINGS.md files lists its target cells, their current values and what a source has to supply. Round 77 moved 20 sources into domains 16–22 from domains 2, 4, 5 and 7, where they had been filed before a domain for their cells existed; domains 15, 23, 24 and 25 are still empty.

#	domain	pipeline cell(s) it could back or replace
1	Bulk density by spectral type, PGM factors, population statistics	AsteroidCatalog taxonomy_composition.csv density/PGM columns; ranking quality
2	Composition → commodity value mapping (what an S/C/X/K/Q body actually contains)	taxonomy_composition.csv material fractions, mineral_value.py mineralogy
3	Δv budgets and propulsion performance tables	spacecost/reference/delta_v_segments.csv, propellants.csv Isp rows
4	Launch $/kg to LEO/GTO — history and projections	spacecost/reference/launch_vehicles.csv price rows, cost cascade
5	In-space storage (boil-off), ISRU, operational costs	storage_systems.csv; the volatile-ISRU, power and electric-propulsion rows of operational_costs.csv (power and EP overlap domain 11; the sources for its finance, licensing, operations, mining and hardware-rate rows moved to 16–21 in Round 77); environment penalties
6	Commodity market prices (the value side)	mineral_value.py ref_price_usd_per_kg, which feeds every profitability row
7	Mission program-cost benchmarks (NRE / development)	operational_costs.csv NRE rows (spacecraft development, autonomous mining control), sample-recovery ops envelope
8	NEA accessibility oracles (round-trip Δv ground truth)	distribution/rank reference for the NEA rows of delta_v_segments.csv (economicspace probe_nhats.py)
9	In-space delivery mass fractions & EDL survival	spacecost delivery.py constants such as MARS_LANDED_MASS_FRACTION
10	Launch vehicle & engine hardware / propellant performance	engine-level ground truth for propellants.csv and launch_vehicles.csv
11	Spacecraft power & electric propulsion	power and electric-propulsion rows of operational_costs.csv
12	Destination environments & physical constants	spacecost environments.csv (flux, gravity, escape velocity, light time, eclipse) and units.py constants
13	Astrodynamics methods, ephemerides & audited software	economicspace research/starred-repos/ (Lambert and Kepler solvers, ephemeris oracles, the 17-repository licence audit)
14	Propellant & consumable prices	propellants.csv ref_cost_usd_per_kg and its component prices
15	In-space demand & market absorption	economicspace mineral_value.py in-space utility, annual-demand and class-share tables; calc.py demand_elasticity, surplus_price_fraction
16	Reliability, learning curves & hardware service life	operational_costs.csv launch reliability, spacecraft MTBF, mining success and growth, rig life, trips and salvage rows; calc.py learning_curve_rate
17	Cost of capital, contingency & insurance	operational_costs.csv WACC, contingency, launch and third-party insurance rows; calc.py contingency_fraction
18	Licensing, planetary protection & space-resource law	operational_costs.csv FAA Part 450 licensing rows and the MPL behind third-party liability; the Earth-return and right-to-sell premises (context-only)
19	Asteroid excavation throughput & beneficiation	calc.py mining rate, rig mass, beneficiation recovery and concentration cap; operational_costs.csv drilling and beneficiation energy, plant throughput; mineral_value.py in-space refining energy
20	Mission operations, communications & ground segment	operational_costs.csv mission operations, DSN time, downlink and depot berthing rows
21	Spacecraft mass & recurring-cost estimating relationships	operational_costs.csv recurring $/kg rows by hardware class; calc.py return-structure and heat-shield fractions, NRE/recurring overlap
22	Prior-art techno-economic benchmarks	economicspace's headline answer (campaign/results.csv best_obj, winner): an external oracle for profitability, as domain 8 is for Δv
23	Cost indices, dollar years & exchange rates	the reference_year of every spacecost table, the CPI factors in row notes, and the exchange rates behind non-US prices
24	Aerocapture & aerobraking	calc.py aero-assisted returns (LEO/Mars trim, GEO aerocapture, fallback saving); delta_v_segments.csv aerocapture and aerobraked rows
25	Net smelter return: refining charges & payable terms	calc.py _mineral_implied_value (100% of contained metal at refined prices) and the refined-metal basis of element prices

Layout

README.md                                This file: what it is and how to read it
INDEX.md                                 Master index: every source → tier, access, pipeline mapping; rejected sources and research log at the bottom
sources.csv                              Machine-readable registry, one row per source (GENERATED — see "Tools")
full_texts_manifest.csv                  Every hosted file → its source id, size, sha256 and licence
revision_candidates.csv                  Upstream cells the evidence says should change, with current status
DOWNLOADS.md                             Checklist of the non-hosted sources still to fetch for a full extraction, with exact links
AGENTS.md                                Working rules for agents running research rounds here
tools/                                   build_registry.py (regenerate derived files) and validate.py (consistency checks)
01_density_and_population/               Domain 1: density by spectral type, PGM factors, population stats
02_composition_value/                    Domain 2: composition → commodity value mapping
03_dv_propulsion/                        Domain 3: Δv budgets, propulsion performance tables
04_launch_economics/                     Domain 4: launch cost per kg — history and projections
05_inspace_operations/                   Domain 5: storage/boil-off, ISRU, in-space operational costs
06_commodity_market_pricing/             Domain 6: commodity/mineral market prices
07_mission_program_costs/                Domain 7: mission program-cost benchmarks (NRE / development anchors)
08_nea_accessibility_oracles/            Domain 8: NEA accessibility oracles (round-trip Δv ground truth)
09_delivery_mass_fractions_edl_survival/ Domain 9: in-space delivery mass fractions & EDL survival
10_launch_vehicle_engine_hardware/       Domain 10: launch vehicle & engine hardware / propellant performance
11_spacecraft_power_electric_propulsion/ Domain 11: spacecraft power & electric propulsion
12_destination_environments_physical_constants/ Domain 12: destination environments & physical constants
13_astrodynamics_methods_ephemerides_software/  Domain 13: astrodynamics methods, ephemerides & audited software
14_propellant_consumable_prices/          Domain 14: propellant & consumable prices
15_inspace_demand_market_absorption/      Domain 15: in-space demand & market absorption
16_reliability_learning_service_life/     Domain 16: reliability, learning curves & hardware service life
17_cost_of_capital_contingency_insurance/ Domain 17: cost of capital, contingency & insurance
18_licensing_planetary_protection_space_law/ Domain 18: licensing, planetary protection & space-resource law
19_asteroid_excavation_beneficiation/     Domain 19: asteroid excavation throughput & beneficiation
20_mission_operations_communications/     Domain 20: mission operations, communications & ground segment
21_mass_cost_estimating_relationships/    Domain 21: spacecraft mass & recurring-cost estimating relationships
22_prior_art_techno_economic_benchmarks/   Domain 22: prior-art techno-economic benchmarks
23_cost_indices_dollar_years/             Domain 23: cost indices, dollar years & exchange rates
24_aerocapture_aerobraking/               Domain 24: aerocapture & aerobraking
25_net_smelter_return_refining_terms/     Domain 25: net smelter return: refining charges & payable terms

<domain>/sources_domain.csv              The registry rows for that domain (the file you edit)
<domain>/FINDINGS.md                     Prose write-ups and per-number comparisons, one block per round
<domain>/full_texts/                     Legally redistributable full texts (arXiv PDFs, NASA public-domain docs, CC-BY articles)
<domain>/extracted_data/                 CSVs of the numbers pulled out of each source, with page/table locations

Source tiers

• T1 — Peer-reviewed journal articles.
• T2 — NASA / ESA technical reports and AIAA / IAC proceedings (institutionally reviewed, not peer-reviewed in the journal sense).
• T3 — Authoritative government or dataset publications with a DOI (e.g., USGS MCS, PDS releases, NEOWISE V2.0).
• T4 — Secondary / grey sources that upstream rows cite: company documents and price pages, news reporting, encyclopedias, vendor or market-research posts, textbooks, software and market-data APIs (added in Round 74). A T4 row marks a cell whose evidence is weak; replacing it with a T1–T3 source is the usual next step.

Each row of sources.csv carries its tier label explicitly.

Access classes

The first word of every access_status is one of these; the rest of the field says how it was verified or why it could not be.

class	meaning
full_text_hosted	full text committed under <domain>/full_texts/ and listed in full_texts_manifest.csv
public_domain_excerpt_hosted	public-domain document too large to commit; the relevant passage is quoted in FINDINGS.md
verified_live_not_pulled	fetched and read from this machine, but not committed
open_not_pulled	open access, but the publisher blocks this machine or the licence forbids hosting; metadata + abstract recorded
open_service	a live database or API, verified from this machine; derived numbers committed, not the service itself
skipped	deliberately not hosted; the user decision is recorded in the row
registered_not_pulled	an upstream citation registered so the dependency is visible; its DOI was checked against Crossref or its landing page against a live request, but the full text has not been sought and nothing is extracted. Re-class the row when it is pulled

Access rules (this repo is public)

1. Full texts are committed only when legally redistributable: arXiv preprints under their licenses, NASA/ESA documents in the public domain or CC-licensed, and journal articles that are genuinely open access with a license permitting redistribution. Each hosted file's licence is recorded in the license column of full_texts_manifest.csv, read from the file or its record (PDF licence statement, NTRS copyright determination, arXiv abs page). arXiv's default licence (nonexclusive-distrib/1.0) lets arXiv distribute a paper but does not let anyone else, so only CC-licensed arXiv versions qualify. validate.py warns on every hosted file whose licence does not permit redistribution.
2. Paywalled items get: full metadata, abstract (as published), and any key tables/numbers extractable from the accessible portion — recorded in extracted_data/ with page/table references so they can be verified later.
3. Every extracted number carries its source id + location (page / table) so a claim downstream is traceable to the paper, not to this repo's summary.

How an item earns a place here

A candidate must satisfy all of:

1. It directly relates to one of the domains above (i.e., it can back or replace a specific pipeline table/cell — "space mining is interesting" does not qualify).
2. Its access status was actually verified from this machine (a URL that 403s at search time but serves full text passes; one that only ever shows an abstract bar does not get full_text_hosted).
3. The numbers it carries were extracted into a CSV, or the item is recorded as context-only with the reason stated in sources.csv.

A registered_not_pulled row is the one exception to 2 and 3: it records that an upstream cell cites the source, and it moves to one of the other classes when an extraction round reads it.

Adding a domain

Open a domain when upstream cells have no domain behind them, not for a topic. A new domain needs:

1. A folder NN_short_name/ (the next two-digit number; lowercase letters, digits and underscores) with sources_domain.csv holding only the header line, and FINDINGS.md holding a title, a Backings: line naming the upstream files and cells, and a first block that tables those cells with their current values and the upstream commit they were read from.
2. A ## Domain N — title section in INDEX.md, above ## Rejected sources, with a _Backings:_ line and the five-column table header and separator. A table with no rows is valid until a round registers a source.
3. A row in the domain table at the top of this file and a line in "Layout" (validate.py fails if a domain folder is not mentioned in this file).
4. A research-log entry for the round.

A source already registered in another domain moves to the new one when the cells it backs are the new domain's (next section); otherwise the new domain's FINDINGS.md refers to it by id.

Moving a source between domains

Move a source when the cells its pipeline_mapping names belong to another domain. Its id never changes. Round 77 set the procedure:

1. Move its row from one sources_domain.csv to the other, and its INDEX row to the end of the new domain's table.
2. git mv its hosted files (and change domain_dir in full_texts_manifest.csv) and every extracted-data CSV that cites only this source. A CSV that also cites sources staying behind stays where it is; if the moved row names it, write the path with the old domain's folder.
3. Append a block to the old domain's FINDINGS.md listing each moved id and the new paths of its files, and one to the new domain's saying what arrived and which old blocks hold its history. Older blocks and the research log stay as written, even where their relative paths no longer resolve.
4. Leave domain_dir in revision_candidates.csv alone: it names the FINDINGS.md that holds the write-up.

Rejecting a source

The owner decides which sources are rejected. A rejected source leaves the registry, and a row in INDEX.md "Rejected sources" becomes its only record: id, source (authors, year, title), link (DOI or URL) and reason (why, and in which round). No data from it is kept. The procedure, set 2026-09-28:

1. Add its row to "Rejected sources". The id stays reserved, so no new source may reuse it.
2. Delete its row from <domain>/sources_domain.csv and from its INDEX domain table.
3. git rm its hosted files and delete their full_texts_manifest.csv rows. The rule on extracting every number before un-hosting a file does not apply.
4. Delete every extracted-data CSV that cites only this source, and in CSVs shared with other sources delete each row that cites it, a;b rows included.
5. Delete its FINDINGS.md write-ups, its DOWNLOADS.md entry, and each mention of its id in other sources' registry rows and FINDINGS blocks. This is the one case where older FINDINGS blocks are edited.
6. Delete each revision candidate whose source_ids is this source alone. For one that also cites others, remove the id from source_ids and rewrite the evidence without it. A deleted rc-NNN number is not reused.
7. Leave past research-log entries as written, and add one naming the rejected id, the reason and any deleted rc-NNN.

validate.py fails if a rejected id is still registered, or if any file path or any CSV or Markdown file other than the research log names it.

Revision candidates

This repo never edits the pipeline repos. When a source contradicts a cell in spacecost, AsteroidCatalog or economicspace, the finding goes into that domain's FINDINGS.md and a row in revision_candidates.csv: target file and row, current value, proposed change, evidence and status (open, applied, declined, superseded, blocked, or withdrawn when this repo's own evidence turns out to be wrong). Each row records the upstream commit its current value was read from, so a stale status is visible. Re-check the open rows against the upstream repos whenever they release.

Tools

python tools/build_registry.py          # regenerate sources.csv; fill manifest sizes + hashes
python tools/build_registry.py --check  # fail if either is out of date
python tools/validate.py                # consistency checks; exit 1 on any error

validate.py checks that sources.csv matches the per-domain files, that each INDEX.md table lists exactly its domain's sources in registry order with five cells per row, that the research log runs from Round 0 to the latest with no gaps, that every hosted file is in the manifest with the right hash and a licence, that every extracted-data CSV is rectangular and cites registered ids, that revision_candidates.csv uses known statuses and sources, that no rejected source is still registered or named anywhere but the research log, and that no CSV or Markdown file has doubled carriage returns (which make git treat it as binary). It also warns, without failing, on hosted files whose licence does not permit redistribution, extracted-data CSVs with no source_id column, and sources that no extracted-data CSV in their domain cites (except registered_not_pulled rows, which it counts in its summary line instead). Standard library only; Python 3.8+.

Provenance of this process

Research rounds are logged at the bottom of INDEX.md (round number, date, what was added), newest first. Extraction was done interactively during each round and is not committed as scripts. Instead, every extracted number records the page or table it came from, so it can be re-checked against the hosted full text or the publisher's copy.

License

MIT, see LICENSE. That covers this repository's own work: the index, the registry and tracking CSVs, the FINDINGS.md write-ups, the records in extracted_data/ and the scripts in tools/. It does not cover the documents committed under full_texts/. Those are third-party papers and reports redistributed under the terms set out in "Access rules" above, and each keeps the license its row in sources.csv identifies.